Published on: August 15, 2020
BY TED C. JONES, PH.D.
Nationwide, the median sales price of existing single-family homes was up 4.2 percent in Q2 2020 to $291,300 and up 5.9 percent to $280,200 based on the Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) average of quarterly median prices according to the National of Association of Realtors® (NAR). NAR also reports quarterly median prices for existing single-family home sales and condominiums for almost 200 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The following analysis is based on current and prior reports from NAR on median prices of existing single family home sales.
In Q2 2020, among the 180 MSAs for which data were reported, just five had a decline in Q2 price on a year-over-year basis, two were unchanged, and 173 MSAs saw increased median prices. The 40 MSAs with the greatest median price increase in single family existing home sales from Q2 2019 to Q2 2020 are shown in the following table. Fifteen MSAs posted double-digit percentage gains -- topped by a 17.6 percent median price increase in Kingston, New York, where the median price rose from $234,700 to $276,100. Huntsville, Alabama came in with the second best median price gain at 13.5 percent, followed by Memphis at 13.4 percent, the Boise MSA at 12.6 percent and Yakima, Washington at 12.1 percent – all averaging more than 1 percent gain per month.
The 40 MSAs with the least median price gains (and five with losses) from Q2 2020 versus the prior year are shown in the next table.
The same data sorts are shown in the next two tables, but with changes calculated using Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) rather than just a Single Quarter of data. The TTM was calculated using the average of the prior four quarters of median prices. The Boise MSA topped the list up 13.6 percent.
Just three MSAs posted a year-over-year median price decline based on the TTM calculation: Binghamton, New York down 3.3 percent, Shreveport-Bossier City, Louisiana off 2.4 percent and Bloomington-Normal, Illinois down 1.9 percent.
The 40 MSAs with the greatest and least median prices as of Q2 2020 are shown in the next two tables.
To test a possible relationship between median price and price change, two statistical correlation measures were calculated. The first was the conventional Pearson Product Moment Correlation Statistic and the second the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (with no normality assumption). Neither indicated a statically significant relationship between median price and price change, with Pearson at -0.13881 and Spearman -0.0789. These statistics can range from 0 (no correlation or relationship whatsoever) to 1 (in which they move perfectly and precisely together). There was no relationship in Q2 2020 median sales price changes among higher- or lower-priced housing markets.
To access the latest quarterly data from NAR click https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/metropolitan-median-area-prices-and-affordability
Click here for a PDF that shows the underlying data for the U.S. and 180 MSAs. Given the economic uncertainty of the pandemic, home prices have performed extremely well.