Published on: April 21, 2022
BY TED C. JONES, PH.D.
As of March 2022
Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Numbers (SAAR)
5.77 million SAAR as of March 2022
down 2.7 percent sequentially from February 2022 which tallied 5.93 million
down 4.5% percent year-over-year from 6.04 million in March 2021
Monthly Sales – raw data not seasonally adjusted
456,000 for the month of March 2022
up 29.5 percent sequentially versus the 352,000 sales in February 2022
down 5.8 percent versus the 484,000 sales in March 2021
Sales Trailing 12-Months – raw data not seasonally adjusted
6.064 million for the 12-months ending March 2022 – raw data not seasonally adjusted
down 0.5 percent vs 12-months ending February 2022 of 6.092 million
up 4.7 percent vs 12-months ending March 2021 of 5.792 million
Sales Year-to-Date – raw data not seasonally adjusted
Median Price – March 2022 due to historic monthly seasonality of existing home prices, only a year-over-year comparison is made
$375,300 – not seasonally adjusted
up 15.0 percent vs $326,300 March 2021
Average Price – March 2022 due to historic monthly seasonality of existing home prices, only a year-over-year comparison is made
$387,100 – not seasonally adjusted
up 9.6 percent vs $353,100 recorded in March 2021
Single-Family Sales by Price and Median Days on the Market Prior to an Accepted Purchase Contract – sample data not seasonally adjusted
Primary reason sales priced $250,000 and less are down is minimal inventory
Months Inventory – with 6.0 months inventory considered normal from a historical perspective – Seasonally Adjusted
Read the full press release from NAR here.
Headwinds in 2022 include quickly rising interest rates, affordability issues and uncertainty of the economy given the ever-evolving pandemic and now global conflicts. A major anticipated change is cooling of the rocketing trajectory of median prices (up 15.0 percent in the 12-months ending March 2022).
Housing sales are shrinking due escalating interest rates and a waning impact from COVID 19.
In the early 2000s I concluded that the start of a weakening housing market featured both a reduction in total home sales in the prior 12-months but with significant increases in median price. That perfectly describes the situation today. I believe at year-end we look back to 2021 as the peak of the U.S. housing market in this economic cycle.
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Given the changes in how buyers search for homes and the technology utilized, it is time to revisit what defines normal inventory. With the typical home receiving an accepted offer in 17 days in March 2022, the time from listing-to-contract continues to compress.