MSA Job Growth October 2022

10, 5 and 1 Year Performance Plus Other Metrics

Jobs are everything when it comes to analyzing the economy and the ultimate demand for real estate. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases job numbers and related metrics monthly for 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Seasonally adjusted data are summarized in the following analyses facilitating an apples-to-apples comparison of any month to another. The onset of the pandemic in March 2020 saw the U.S. lose 22 million jobs when comparing pre-pandemic employment counts (February 2020) to April 2020 across the country. The incidence of loss and recovery rates since then vary widely on an MSA basis, however. The TINSTAANREM axiom is applicable — There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market or economy. The same is true with respect to job losses and respective recovery across metros today.

The first table shows the 40 MSAs with the best job performance rates from February 2020 (the month prior to the pandemic) to October 2022. Within the 380 MSAs, 162 (42.6 percent) now have more jobs than ever before in history, four have the same number of jobs (1.0 percent), and 214 still lag in job numbers (56.3 percent). Six MSAs now have at least 10 percent more jobs than prior to the pandemic:

Jobs are everything, and for many MSAs now a positive talking point regarding the economy and where real estate markets are heading. The potential of a recession in 2023, however, can change these trajectories quickly.