Artículo del blog de Stewart

Oscillating Existing Home Sales But Continued Rising Price - septiembre 2021

Publicado el: 1 de noviembre de 2021

POR TED C. JONES, PH.D.


Existing Home Sales septiembre 2021 – National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Box Score

As of septiembre 2021

Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Numbers (SAAR)

6.29 million SAAR as of septiembre 2021
up 7.0 percent sequentially from agosto 2021 from 5.88 million
down 2.3 percent year-over-year from 6.44 million in septiembre 2020

Monthly Sales – raw data not seasonally adjusted

548,000 for the month of septiembre 2021
down 4.9 percent sequentially versus the 576,000 sales in agosto 2021
down 2.7 percent versus the 563,000 sales in septiembre 2020

Sales Trailing 12-Months – raw data not seasonally adjusted

6.184 million for the 12-months ending septiembre 2021 – raw data not seasonally adjusted
down 0.2 percent vs 12-months ending agosto 2021 of 6.199 million
up 15.8 percent vs 12-months ending septiembre 2020 of 5.340 million

Sales Year-to-Date – raw data not seasonally adjusted

Median Price – septiembre 2021 due to historic monthly seasonality of existing home prices, only a year-over-year comparison is made

$352,800 – not seasonally adjusted
up 13.3 percent vs $311,500 septiembre 2020

Average Price – septiembre 2021 due to historic monthly seasonality of existing home prices, only a year-over-year comparison is made

$372,600 – not seasonally adjusted
up 8.6 percent vs $343,100 recorded in septiembre 2020

Single-Family Sales by Price and Median Days on the Market Prior to an Accepted Purchase Contract – sample data not seasonally adjusted

Primary reason that sales priced $250,000 and less are down is due to minimal inventory

Months Inventory – with 6.0 months inventory considered normal on an historical perspective – Seasonally Adjusted

Graphs

Other Details Included in the NAR septiembre 2021 Release

Median price has risen 115 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis

Inventory slipped 0.8 percent from agosto 2021 to septiembre 2021 to 1.27 million active listings, down 13.0 percent from the 1.46 million listings available in septiembre 2020
Months Inventory at the end of septiembre 2021 was 2.4 months (not seasonally adjusted), down 7.7 percent from 2.7 months in septiembre 2020

Typical property was on the market 17 days prior to an accepted purchase contract, unchanged from the prior month but down from 21 days 1-year ago

86 percent of homes closed in septiembre 2021 were on the market less than one month before going under contract

1st time homebuyers accounted for 28 percent of September closings, down from 31 percent one-year ago. Continuing erosion of affordability will no doubt negatively impact 1st-time homebuyers ability to access the great American dream given rising prices and rising interest rates
Investors purchased 13 percent of all existing home sales in septiembre 2021, down from 15 percent in septiembre 2021 but up slightly from 12 percent 1-year ago
Buyers paid all-cash (no mortgage loan involved) in almost one-in-four closings (23%) up from 18 percent one-year ago

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales -- made up less than 1 percent of septiembre 2021 transactions and was unchanged from the prior month & year-over-year. Most homeowners unable to make their mortgage payments today merely need to list the property with a real estate agent and prepare to walk with equity from a closing sometime in the next 30 to 60 days in this tight housing market

To read the entire NAR press release and access the underlying data click https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-ascend-7-0-in-september

Housing continues to have among the greatest intrinsic value in our lifetimes as we have spent more time ever at home and that continues as the pandemic is not yet behind us. Rising rates, however, will have a negative impact on both sales and price gains.

Ted

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