Existing Home Sales Continue to Shrink in 2022 年 3 月 While Prices Hit a New Record High
现有房屋销售 2022 年 3 月 – 全国房地产经纪人协会® （NAR）
Box Score
截至 2022 年 3 月
经季节性调整的年化销售数字 （SAAR）
5.77 截至 ，000 万 SAAR 2022 年 3 月
down 2.7 percent sequentially from 2022 年 2 月 which tallied 5.93 million
同比下降 4.5%，低于 6.0400 万 2021 年 3 月
月销售额 – 原始数据未按季节调整
456,000 当月 2022 年 3 月
与 352,000 项销售额相比，增长了 29.5% 2022 年 2 月
与 484,000 个销售额相比下降了 5.8% 2021 年 3 月
销售跟踪 12-Months – 原始数据未按季节调整
6.064 截至 2022 年 3 月 的 12 个月的 百万 – 未季节性调整的原始数据比截至 2022 年 2 月 的 12 个月下降 0.5%，为 6.09200 万
与结束 2021 年 3 月 的 12 个月相比，增长了 4.7%，达到 5.79200 万
年初至今的销售 – 原始数据未按季节调整
中位数价格 – 由于现有房价的历史月度季节性，2022 年 3 月 仅进行同比比较
$375,300 – not seasonally adjusted up 15.0 percent vs $326,300 2021 年 3 月
平均价格 – 由于现有房价具有历史性的月度季节性，因此 2022 年 3 月 仅进行了逐年比较
387,100 美元 – 未按季节调整，比 353,100 美元上涨 9.6% 2021 年 3 月
接受采购合同前按价格和市场中位天数划分的单户销售 - 样本数据未按季节调整
Primary reason sales priced $250,000 and less are down is minimal inventory
月数库存 – 从历史角度来看，6.0 个月库存被视为正常 – 季节性调整
图表
NAR 2022 年 3 月 版本中包含的其他详细信息
- 价格中位数连续 121 个月同比上涨
- Inventory rose 11.8 percent from 2022 年 2 月 to 2022 年 3 月 to 950,000 active listings and was down 9.5 percent compared to 2021 年 3 月
- Months Inventory at the end of 2022 年 3 月 was 2.0 months (not seasonally adjusted), up slightly from the 1.9 months measured in the prior month
- Typical property was on the market 17 days prior to an accepted purchase contract versus 18 days each in 2022 年 2 月 and one-year ago
- 87 % 的 2022 年 3 月 关闭的房屋在签订合同前不到一个月上市
- 1 st time homebuyers accounted for 30 percent of March closings, down from 32 percent one-year ago. Continuing erosion of affordability will no doubt negatively impact 1 st -time homebuyers ability to access the great American dream given rising prices and rising interest rates
- Investors purchased one-in-five homes (19 percent) sold in 2022 年 3 月, unchanged from 19 percent in the prior month but up from 15 percent 1-year ago
- Buyers paid all-cash 28 percent of the time, up from 23 percent one-year ago
- Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – are still not an issue making up less than 1 percent of 2022 年 3 月 transactions - unchanged from the prior month & year-over-year. Most homeowners unable to make their mortgage payments today merely need to list the property with a real estate agent and prepare to walk with equity from a closing sometime in the next 30 to 60 days in this tight housing market.
Read the full press release from NAR here.
Headwinds in 2022 include quickly rising interest rates, affordability issues and uncertainty of the economy given the ever-evolving pandemic and now global conflicts. 一个主要的预期变化是中值价格的火箭轨迹降温（在结束2022 年 3 月的115.0个月内上涨了2%）。
Housing sales are shrinking due escalating interest rates and a waning impact from COVID 19.
In the early 2000s I concluded that the start of a weakening housing market featured both a reduction in total home sales in the prior 12-months but with significant increases in median price. That perfectly describes the situation today. I believe at year-end we look back to 2021 as the peak of the U.S. housing market in this economic cycle.
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鉴于买家寻找房屋的方式和所用技术的变化，是时候重新审视定义正常库存的因素了。With the typical home receiving an accepted offer in 17 days in 2022 年 3 月, the time from listing-to-contract continues to compress.
Ted