Half Way There - 25 States Back to Pre-Pandemic Employment Levels, 25 to Go But Headwinds Picking Up
At the onset of the pandemic in 2020 年 3 月, the U.S. lost 22 million jobs when comparing pre-pandemic employment counts (2020 年 2 月) to 2020 年 4 月. In comparison, the U.S. lost 8.7 million jobs in the 25 months from 2008 年 1 月 to the Great Recession trough in 2010 年 2 月 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) using seasonally adjusted data.
As of 2022 年 10 月, the BLS data show 25 states had more jobs than any time in history. The first table shows the percentage change in jobs from 2020 年 2 月 (the month prior to the pandemic) compared to 2022 年 10 月 sorted by relative recoveries. 还包括哥伦比亚特区。Idaho and Utah continue to lead job growth since 2020 年 2 月, with gains of 6.9 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively. Least recovered since the pandemic include Hawaii down 6.6 percent, the District of Columbia -4.6 percent and Vermont -4.4 percent.
并非所有州都同样受到疫情的影响，如下表所示。从2月到4月或5月2020，密歇根州每4个工作岗位中就有1个失业（-23.7%），而犹他州每12个工作岗位中就有1个失业（-8.9%）。
Though Hawaii trails the U.S. overall in job recovery post-pandemic, the Aloha state surged back last month as travel continues to recover, posting the best one-month job growth rate from September to 2022 年 10 月 of 0.8 percent. Largest one-month job loss rate of -0.4 percent included Wyoming and Maryland. One-month job gains or losses are shown for all states and D.C. in the next table.
Job change rates for the 12-months ending 2022 年 10 月 are detailed in the following table. Best 12-month performance include Texas (+5.4 percent) and Florida (+5.0 percent). None posted a job loss for the 12-month period, but Mississippi showed a zero-percentage change over the period.
截至 2022 年 10 月 的总就业人数显示在下一张表格中，按州从最多到最少的就业人数排序。还包括按州划分的累计工作百分比。Nine states account for one-half (50.6 percent) of all U.S. jobs.
所有 50 个州和哥伦比亚特区的就业指标详见上表。
BLS每月提供大量与工作和劳动力相关的数据，从县级到国家级。This data can be accessed at www.bls.gov, then click the DATA TOOLS tab.
Not all of the roughly $5 trillion of federal pandemic stimulus has yet been spent, but it still is having an impact on positive job growth. With 10s of thousands of tech and ecommerce job cuts announced recently and just coming off the highest inflation in 40 years concerns are the U.S. is headed to a recession with the following expectations:
Fannie Mae – modest recession will commence in Q1 2023
The Conference Board – economic weakness to see a recession to begin around the end of 2022
Bloomberg – probability of a recession is now 100 percent within a year
JPMorgan – mild recession in 2023
Forbes – recession will begin late 2022 or early 2023
Former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren – U.S. likely headed to mild recession in 2023
FitchRatings – recession to start in Q2 2023
University of Michigan Economists – mild recession ahead in 2023
If they are correct regarding a recession, job losses may return in 2023 delaying recovery further for the 25 states yet to get back to pre-pandemic job numbers. Pay close attention to job numbers to gauge where the economies -- from county to federal levels -- are heading.
工作是经济的一切。期间。一切都是关于工作。
Ted